Article Archive

THE RIGHT QUESTION:

IS THERE NO OTHER POLICY EXCEPT FOR A FAILED ONE?

by Dr. Steve Carol ©

August 7, 2007

(Posted on the Internet at Israel National at http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/7356 ; http://politicomafioso.blogspot.com/2007/08/right-question-is-there-no-other-policy.html ; at War to Mobilize Democracy http://netwmd.com/blog/2007/08/07/1870 and at Israpundit http://www.israpundit.com/2006/?p=5517#comment-105218 )

The recent announcement of a planned U.S. $20 billion sale to Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates – and the new, U.S. three-line deployment strategy, is being discussed and questioned globally.

However, once again we are witnessing the repackaging of old wine in new bottles, except that this time the wine is vinegar. Major components of the proposed sale and strategy have been tried before by the U.S. and failed.

In 1970, as part of the “Nixon Doctrine”, the United States introduced the concept of relying on “regional influentials” to safeguard American interests in the wide area of the Middle East. Assigned to this role was Iran, under the Shah, whose task was to protect the Persian Gulf region. Second was Israel that was to watch over the Eastern Mediterranean area and Suez Canal. The third was Ethiopia, under Emperor Haile Selassie, that was assigned the task of safeguarding the southern approaches to the Red Sea. Arms aid was given to all three nations.

In all three cases, the policy failed. The Shah faced unrest that resulted in a revolution that toppled the pro-American Pahlavi dynasty in 1978-1979. All of the American military equipment, much of it top of the line at the time, fell into the hands of the Islamic republic. Israel suffered the shock of military setbacks and subsequent diplomatic reversals that were the immediately result of the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Ethiopia faced civil war, drought and revolution that swept from power the Imperial monarchy, and replaced it with a Marxist regime, where again American aid fell into the hands of that anti-Western regime.

The policy of relying on “regional influentials” did not work in the 1970s. It will not work now. Saudi Arabia has but one goal first and foremost, to preserve the House of Saud. It will not be a “deputy U.S. policeman” to block and, if necessary, combat Islamic Iran’s air force, any more than the misguided U.S. policy of hoping that the Palestinian Fatah organization will control militant Hamas.

To further complicate and make matters worse, the U.S. will offer Egypt $13 billion as part of the arms package. The Egyptian armed forces, largely equipped with U.S.-made weaponry thanks to US aid totaling over $70 billion since 1979, trains for a war against the named “enemy” – Israel. According to the Congressional Research Service, Egypt purchased $6.5 billion worth of foreign weapons in the years 2001-04, more than any other state in the Middle East. In contrast, the Israeli government bought only $4.4 billion worth during that period and the Saudis $3.8 billion. If Egypt is at peace with Israel, what are all those weapons for? The answer to the question lies in Egyptian war doctrine which still views Israel as Egypt’s main, if not its only, enemy. In view of these facts, for what purpose does Egypt need an additional $13 billion to fund sophisticated top-of-the-line aircraft? Let one not forget that despite the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, the Arab League’s 1948 declaration of war to liquidate the state of Israel remains in force. Egypt is a member of the Arab League and subscribes to its decisions.

In an attempt to resuscitate the failed policy, the U.S. has added another failed strategy to the mix. As a sweetener to Israel (to swallow the bitter pill of a massive arms sale to the Arab states) and in order to get Congressional and Israeli approval to this pending deal, the U.S. administration has promised Israel an additional $30 billion in military aid over a 10 year period. While Israeli Prime minister Ehud Olmert was quick to praise the 25% US military aid increase as an important boost to Israel’s security, President Bush indicated that he could not guarantee this aid level beyond 2009! So much for 10 years of increased aid. Appeasement-minded Olmert added that President Bush had promised him Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region would be preserved. This may be wishful thinking on Olmert’s part, since the U.S. is now inclined to sell the F-22 Raptor stealth fighter-bomber to the Saudis, while only “considering” such a sale to Israel. In recent tests, a U.S. pilot using an F-22, engaged and defeated six F-15s in mock combat and that was repeated several times. The F-15 is the current top plane in the Israeli Air Force. Olmert, no doubt, is putting into practice Israeli President Shimon Peres’ infamously quoted statement that “It’s a great mistake to learn from history. There is nothing to learn from history.” (Maariv, May 23, 1996).

The Israeli Prime Minister has forgotten and ignored his nation’s history. In 1970, the United States and the Soviet Union brokered and guaranteed a cease fire that ended the 1,000 day War of Attrition (1967-1970). The Soviets and the Egyptians broke the agreement on the very first night it went into effect. To pacify Israel, the U.S. gave Israel more monetary aid and additional aircraft, much as it is promising now. The U.S. move was costly to Israel. The Israeli Air force witnessed 49 of its best planes shot out of the sky in the first two days of the Yom Kippur War. The additional American funds evaporated as the staggering costs of the war, both in life and expense, dramatically escalated. So Israel has had the experience of an American “pay off” to acquiesce to an American-Arab arms deal.

Also of importance in the pending U.S.-Saudi deal is a Saudi commitment to keep the new warplanes and missile systems away from Israel’s borders. Don’t hold your breath on that promise. A similar Saudi pledge offered in the 1990s for US F-15 warplanes was never kept despite reminders from Washington. The planes were housed at Tabuk close to the Jordanian border, Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat and its Negev bases. Ultimately, Israel informed Riyadh through Washington that Tabuk would not be immune from attack in a fresh all-out Middle East conflict. All of this does not even begin to address the question as to how good an ally Saudi Arabia is. The arms deal was promoted despite the fact that Saudi Arabia was unhelpful to the U.S. in Iraq, opposed to U.S. policy in dealing with the Palestinians, and was unable or unwilling to stop suicide bombers reaching Iraq.

Thus the new U.S. proposed arms sale to Saudi Arabia is fraught with peril. Is there no other policy the U.S. Administration can pursue other than a failed one?

THE RIGHT QUESTION:

JUST HOW MANY ARAB STATES ARE THERE?

June 8, 2007

(Featured on the world-wide web at War to Mobilize Democracy at http://netwmd.com/blog/2007/06/08/1763, Politico Mafioso at http://politicomafioso.blogspot.com/2007/06/right-question-just-how-many-arab.html and Exposing Islamofascism at http://somebodyhelpme.info/steve_carol/arab_states.html )

In recent days there has been a flurry of articles dealing with the 40^th anniversary of the Six Day War – both factual and revisionist. Many of these articles speak of the Arab states and state there are “22” or even “23” Arab states. Just today, I was asked, yet again, how many Arab States are there? And why the confusion?

To set the record straight, below please find my chart of the League of Arab States. News media (who should know better) and pundits have not done their “homework.” The confusion comes from two sources.

First, the Arab League claims 22 members -- for they count "Palestine" as a real country -- which it is not, despite the fact that the Arabs have had control of Gaza and Judea-Samaria (what the Arabs call the “West Bank”) from 1948-1967, and again, in the case of Gaza, since 2005. They have yet to proclaim an independent “Palestine” – nor do they want to.

Secondly, some pundits, and news media people are still counting both the Yemen Arab Republic and the Peoples' Democratic Republic of (South) Yemen as two separate nations. The fact is that the two Yemens united in May 1990 and Arab League membership went down one.

Much of the world, including some in the U.S. and even Israel, has bought into the Arab propaganda line (yet again) to use the figure "22" as they use the terminology "West Bank," "occupied territory," “Arabian Gulf,” “Arabistan,” and “creation.”

THE LEAGUE OF ARAB STATES

Formed: Mar. 22, 1945 Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt v

Charter members: Egypt v, Iraq, Jordan (originally Trans-Jordan), Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, & Yemen æ

Additional Members:

Libya ö Mar. 28, 1953	Oman Sept. 29, 1971
Sudan Jan. 9, 1956	United Arab Emirates Dec. 6, 1971
Morocco & Tunisia Oct. 1, 1958	Mauritania Nov. 28, 1973
Kuwait Julu 20, 1961	Somalia Feb. 14, 1974
Algeria Aug. 16, 1962	“Palestine”(PLO) Sept. 6, 1976
P.D.R. Yemen æ Dec. 12, 1967	Djibouti Sept. 4, 1977
Bahrain & Qatar Sept. 11, 1971	Comoros Nov. 20, 1993

Eritrea was given observer status at the Arab League – Jan. 2003

v In Mar. 1979, Egypt was suspended from the Arab League.

The headquarters was moved to Tunis, Tunisia.

In Mar. 1989, Egypt was re-admitted to the Arab League and the headquartrs was returned to Cairo.

æ May 22, 1990 – Yemen and P.D.R. Yemen unified into the

Republic of Yemen.

ö - Oct. 25,2002, Libya withdrew from the Arab League. This would have been effective one year later; however Libya cancelled (January 16, 2003), reaffirmed (April 3, 2003), and again cancelled (May 25, 2003) the decision to withdraw.